I was having an interesting chat with a Locks Heath buy to let Landlord the other day when the subject of size of households came up in conversation.  For those of you who read my Brexit article published on the morning after the referendum, one of the reasons on why I thought the Locks Heath property market would, in the medium to long term, be OK, was the fact that the size of households in the 21^st Century was getting smaller – which would create demand for Locks Heath Property and therefore keep property prices from dropping.

Looking at the stats going back to the early 1960’s, when the average number of people in a home was exactly 3, it has steadily over the years dropped by a fifth to today’s figure of 2.4 people per household. Doesn’t sound a lot, but if the population remained at the same level for the next 50 years and the we had the same 20% drop in household size, the UK would need to build an additional 5.28 million properties ( or 105,769 per year). When you consider the Country is only building 139,800 properties a year it doesn’t leave much for people living longer and immigration. Looking closer to home…

In the Fareham Borough Council area, the average number of occupants per household is 2.4 people

When we look at the current picture nationally and split it down into tenure types (i.e. owned, council houses and private renting, a fascinating picture appears.

The vast majority of homeowners who don’t have a mortgage are occupied by one or two people (81% in fact), although this can be explained as residents being older, with some members of the family having moved out, or a pensioner living alone.  People living on their own are more likely to live in a Council house (43%) and the largest households (those with 4 or more people living in them are homeowners with a mortgage – but again, that can be explained as homeowners with families tend to need a mortgage to buy. What surprised me was the even spread of private rented households and how that sector of population are so evenly spread across the occupant range – in fact that sector is the closest to the national average, even though they only represent a sixth of the population.

When we look at the Fareham Borough Council figures for all tenures (Owned, Council and Private Rented) a slightly different picture appears…

1 person households in Locks Heath	2 person households in Locks Heath	3 person households In Locks Heath	4 person households in Locks Heath	5+ person households in Locks Heath
25.36%	39.33%	16.02%	13.97%	5.32%

But it gets even more interesting when we focus on just private rental properties in Locks Heath, as it is the rental market in Locks Heath that really fascinates me. When I analysed those Fareham Borough Council private rental household composition figures, a slightly different picture appears. Of the 3,906 Private rental properties in the  Fareham Borough Council area:

• 26.6% of Private Rental Properties are 1 person Households
• 36.9% of Private Rental Properties are 2 person Households
• 18% of Private Rental Properties are 3 person Households
• 11.9% of Private Rental Properties are 4 person Households
• 6.2% of Private Rental Properties are 5+ person Households

As you can see, Locks Heath is not too dissimilar from the national picture but there is story to tell. If you are considering future buy to let purchases in the coming 12 to 18 months, I would seriously consider looking at two and three bedroom houses. Even with the numbers stated, there are simply not enough two and three bedroom houses to meet the demand. They have to be in the right part of Locks Heath and priced realistically, but they will always let and when you need to sell, irrespective of market conditions at the time, will always be the target of buyers. To read more articles on the Locks Heath Property Market and where I consider best buy to let deals are in Locks Heath and the rest of the local area, please visit the Locks Heath Property Blog http://www.thelocksheathpropertyblog.co.uk.

Well it’s been four weeks since the Referendum vote and we have had a chance to reflect on the momentous decision that the British public took. Many of you read the article I wrote on the morning of the results. I had gone to bed the night before with a draft of my Remain article nicely all but finished, to be presented, first thing in the morning, with the declaration by the BBC saying we were leaving the EU. I don’t think any of us were expecting that.

If you want to read a copy of that original Post Brexit blog post, please visit my blog www.thelocksheathpropertyblog.co.uk and scroll back to late June to find it.  In this article I would like to take my thoughts on from that initial article and now start to see the clearer picture as the dust settles on the UK, but more importantly, the Locks Heath Property Market.

In case you weren’t aware, the residents of the Fareham Borough Council area went with the National mood and voted as follows:

Fareham Borough Council      Remain Votes              32,210             (44.9% of the vote)

Fareham Borough Council      Leave Votes                 39,525             (55.1% of the vote)

Fareham Borough Council Turnout    79.6%

I have been reading there is some evidence to indicate younger voters were vastly more likely to vote Remain than their parents and grandparents and, whilst the polling industry’s techniques may have been widely criticised, following them getting both the 2010 General Election and the recent Brexit vote wrong, anecdotally, many surveys seem to suggest there was a relationship between age and likelihood to support leaving the EU.

Interestingly, the average age of a Locks Heath resident is 42.6 years old, which is above the national average of 39.3, which might go someway to back up the way Locks Heath voted? What I do know is that putting aside whether you were a remain or leave voter, the vote to leave has, and will, create uncertainty and the last thing the British property market needs is uncertainty (because as with previous episodes of uncertainty in the UK economy – UK house prices have tended to go down).

Interestingly, when we look at the Homeownership rates in the Fareham Borough Council area, of the 37,734 properties that are owned in the Fareham Borough Council area (Owned being owned outright, owned with a mortgage or shared ownership), the age range paints a noteworthy picture:

Age 16 to 34 homeowners      2,545    or       6.7%  (Nationally 9.6%)

Age 35 to 49 homeowners    10,429    or     27.7%  (Nationally 29.2%)

Age 50 to 64 homeowners    11,906    or     31.5%  (Nationally 30.7%)

Aged 65+ homeowners         12,854    or     30.1%  (Nationally 30.5%)

So, looking at these figures, and the high proportion of older homeowners, you might think all the Fareham Borough Council area homeowners would vote Remain to keep house prices stable and younger people would vote out so house prices come down- so they could afford to buy?

But there’s a risk in oversimplifying this. The sample of the polling firms are in the thousands whilst the country voted in its millions. Other demographic influences have been at play in the way people voted, as early evidence is starting to suggest that class, level of education, the levels of immigration and ethnic diversity had an influence on the way the various parts of the UK voted.

So what I suggest is this – Don’t assume everyone over the age of 50 voted ‘Leave’ and don’t assume most 20 somethings backed ‘Remain’; because many didn’t!

… and the Locks Heath Property Market – well, read my original article in the Locks Heath Property Blog and you can make your own mind up: https://thelocksheathpropertyblog.co.uk/2016/06/24/55-1-of-fareham-voters-voted-to-leave-the-eu-what-now-for-the-16279-locks-heath-landlords-and-homeowners/

I had a Landlord from Park Gate email me the other day. She said she had been following my blog (the Locks Heath Property Blog) for a while and wanted to pick my brain on when is the best time of the year to sell a property. Trying to calculate the best time to put your Locks Heath property on the market can often seem something akin to witchcraft and, whilst I would agree that there are particular times of the year that can prove more productive than others, there are plenty of factors that need to be taken into consideration.

Even if you are putting your property on the market, you don’t know how long it will take to find a buyer – no crystal ball to help with that one. At the moment, the latest set of figures for all 24 estate agents in Locks Heath, show the average length of time it takes to find a buyer for any Locks Heath property is as follows:

Detached                    97  days

Semi                            84  days

Terraced                     80  days

Flat                              121 days

Overall average        100 days

If we roll the clock back to January 2016, the overall average time it took to find a buyer (again using data from all of the 24 Locks Heath Estate Agents) was 120 days.

So, on the face of it, things have vastly improved over the last six months or so. When I looked at the data going back to 2009, and every Spring since then, the average length of time it takes to sell a property drops between January and the Summer months, for it to rise on the run up to Christmas. For example:

Winter 2009 – 191 days           Summer 2009  – 165 days

and in more recent times…

Winter 2013 – 158 days           Summer 2013  – 142 days

Winter 2014 – 119 days           Summer 2014  – 107 days

Winter 2015 – 120 days           Summer 2015  – 106 days

Coming back to the present; Even if you placed your property on the market today in Locks Heath, if it takes you on average a little over fourteen weeks to find a buyer, then you can expect solicitors and the chain to take an additional eight and twelve weeks after that, before you move. It comes down to personal choice as to when you place your property on the market. Children often affect the decision. On one side you might delay putting that for sale board in your front garden so you can move in the summer school holidays, but on the other side, you might want to move sooner to be in the catchment area of a preferred school, in plenty of time for the next academic year.

There are times of the year when it’s better to sell, and times when waiting a little longer can pay off in the long run. In a nutshell, I would say this is the way of the seasons:

Spring: Customarily there are more house-buyers as the Daffodils show themselves

Summer: Sellers may miss out on house-buyers being on holiday

Autumn: The enthusiasm for buying homes returns

Winter: Interest diminishes as festive period looms

What this means to buyers and Landlord investors is that they often pick up a bargain in later months of the year, as there is less competition from owner occupiers. So, whilst there are better months to achieve a quicker sale, the only piece of advice I can give to every home  owner and Landlord in Locks Heath, is do the right thing for yourself, do your homework and buy (and sell) with both your head as well as your heart.

For more thoughts on the Locks Heath Property Market  visit the Locks Heath Property Blog www.thelocksheathpropertyblog.co.uk.

Locks Heath house prices since the Millennium have risen by 143.1%, whilst average salaries in Locks Heath have only grown by 51.27% over the same time frame. This has served to push homeownership further out of reach for many Locks Heath people as they have to battle against raising considerable deposits and meet sterner lending criteria, as a result of new mortgage regulations introduced in 2014/5.  The private rental market in Locks Heath has grown throughout the last twenty years with buy-to-let investors purchasing a high proportion of newly built residential properties that were built and designed for the owner occupier sales markets.  For example, in the Fareham Constituency, roll the clock back 20 years and there were 33,894 properties in the Constituency, whilst the most recent set of figures show there are 40,548 properties – a growth of 6,654 properties.

However, anecdotal evidence suggests that quite a number of those 6,654 were bought by Locks Heath buy-to-let Landlords, as over the same 20-year time frame, the number of rental properties has grown from 1,986 to 4,113 in the Constituency – a rise of 2,127 properties.

Nevertheless, some say this historic growth of the Locks Heath rental market might start to change with the new tax rules for Landlords introduced by Mr Osborne over the last seven or eight months. Yet the numbers tell another story. Across the board, mortgage borrowing climbed to a 9 year zenith in March this year as the British property market’s traditional Easter rush corresponded with Landlords hurrying to beat George Osborne’s new stamp duty changes – buy-to-let Landlords borrowed £7.1bn in March 2016 (the latest set of figures released) which was 163% up on the £2.7bn borrowed in the previous March.

You see, from my point of view, I don’t think things will get worse in the buy-to-let market in Locks Heath and these are the reasons why I believe that:

Firstly, what else are Locks Heath Landlords going to invest in if it isn’t property – the stock market? Since the Millennium, the stock market has risen by an unimpressive total of 5.54%, quite different to the 143.1% rise in Locks Heath property prices?

Secondly, it is true the 3% stamp duty is the first blow on top of a number of other tax changes to be phased in between 2017 and 2021, such as Landlords facing a constraint in their ability to offset mortgage interest and, if sizeable numbers of Landlords do take the decision to sell their portfolios, this will lead to a substantial amount of second hand properties being put up for sale. Yet that might not be a bad thing, as I have mentioned in previous articles there is a serous shortage of properties to buy at the moment in Locks Heath: the stock of property for sale being at a six year all time low.

Thirdly, if there are fewer rental properties in Locks Heath, as supply drops and demand remains the same (although ask any letting agent in Locks Heath and they will say demand is constantly rising) this will create a squeeze in the Locks Heath rental market and as a result rents will rise. In fact, I predict even if Landlords don’t sell up, Locks Heath rents will rise as Locks Heath Landlords seek to compensate for increased costs, which means more Landlords will be attracted back.

For more thoughts on the Locks Heath Property market you might find the Locks Heath Property Blog of interest www.thelocksheathpropertyblog.co.uk.