Even the most sane person in Britain has to admit the Brexit vote will, in one shape or another, affect the UK Property market. Excluding central London which is another world, most commentators are saying prices will be affected by around 10%. So looking at the commentators’ thoughts in more detail, property values in Locks Heath will be 10% lower than they would have been if we hadn’t voted to leave the EU.

As the average value of a property in the Fareham Borough Council area is £267,100, this means property values are set to drop for the average Locks Heath property by £26,710 … batten down the hatches .. soup kitchens and mega recession here we come ..it’s going to get rough.

but before we all go into panic mode in Locks Heath… the devil is always in the detail

Look at the phrase again, and I have highlighted the relevant part “Property values in Locks Heath will be 10% lower than they would have been if we hadn’t voted to leave the EU”

Property values today, according to the Land Registry are 9.87% higher than a year ago in the Fareham Borough Council area. The 12 months before that they rose by 11.16% and the 12 months before that, they rose by 5.37%. If we hadn’t voted to leave, I believe on these figures, we could have safely assumed Locks Heath House prices would have been 9% higher by the Summer of 2017.

… and that’s the point, we won’t see a house price crash in Locks Heath, it’s just that house prices in a year’s time will be 1% lower than they are now (ie 9% less the 10% lower figure because of Brexit). Let’s look at the historic figures and how that compares to today’s figures for the Fareham Borough Council area and Locks Heath as a whole.

Average Value of a property 20 years ago                             £  64,000

Average Value of a property 10 years ago                             £193,800

Average Value of a property 2 years ago                               £218,700

Average Value of a property 1 year ago                                  £243,100

Average Value of a property today                                          £267,100

Projected Value of a property in 12 months’ time             £264,400

Therefore, I believe the average value of a Locks Heath property will be £2,700 lower in 12 months’ time than today.

That’s not to say Locks Heath property prices might not dip slightly in the run up to Christmas (in fact they always have done just about every year since the year 2000 and most of those were boom years).  But in 12 months’ time this is my considered opinion of where Locks Heath property values will be, and looking at the historic prices, even if I (and many other property market commentators) are wrong and they do drop 10% from TODAY’S figure… in the whole scheme of things, we have been through a Credit Crunch, Black Monday and 15% interest rates over the last 20 to 30 years and still Locks Heath house prices have always bounced back.

… and Locks Heath landlords?  They have recently been thrashed by Osborne’s tax changes, but yields could rise if Locks Heath house prices fall/stablise and rents grow. This might also make it easier to obtain mortgages, as the income would cover more of the interest cost. If prices were to level or come down that could help Locks Heath landlords add to their portfolio, as rental demand for Locks Heath property is expected to stay strong as more people find it more and more difficult to obtain mortgages.

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