Some commentators are saying buy to let is about to die, with the new stamp duty changes and how mortgage tax relief will be calculated. Some say 500,000 rental properties will flood the market nationally in the next 12 months as landlords leave the rental market. Have you heard the phrase ‘Bad news sells newspapers’? Let me explain why buy to let in Locks Heath is only going in one direction – and not the direction the papers say they are going.

According to Sheffield University, buy to let landlords will continue fuelling the growth of the private rented sector in the coming decades. By their estimates (and they are considered a centre of excellence on the topic), the rate of homeownership nationally will fall to 50% (today it is 75.8% in the Locks Heath area) by 2032, while the rate of private sector renting will increase to 35% (interestingly, in Locks Heath area it stands at 12.3% today).

Therefore, the demand for rental accommodation in Locks Heath and SO31 postcode will grow by 471 households in the next five years ... and these are the reasons why, irrespective of the distractions set out in the newspapers.

Locks Heath property values over the last six years have risen a lot more than average wages/salaries, meaning as homeownership and mortgage availability is dependent on your ability to pay has served to push home ownership further out of reach for many, at a time when the stock of council houses has actually withered. (Nationally, the number of council houses in the last ten years has dropped from 3.16m to 2.18m households – a drop of 31.1%).

Now it’s true the Tory’s efforts to fix the deficiency of affordable housing have focused on those who want to buy a home, ranging from Help to Buy and their much vaunted Help to Buy ISA, and Starter Homes Scheme, an initiative offering a 20% discount for first time buyers … but if you are unable to save for the deposit … none of this means anything to the ‘20 something’s’ of Locks Heath … and they still need a roof over their heads!

Currently, 5,151 people live in private rented accommodation in the Locks Heath and SO31 area. 

These are big numbers and a sizeable chunk of the electorate. So whilst it appears Locks heath “Generation Rent” youngsters will continue to rent and to not to buy for the reasons set out above, Locks Heath buy-to-let landlords will be lifted by the projections of greater rental demand. Locks Heath and the area around it still offers the prospect of strong economic growth forecasts and has a reputation as a lively and desirable place to live.

So, by 2021, the number of rental properties in Locks Heath and SO31 area will rise to 3,242.

This prediction in growth of the Locks Heath rental market is on the back of the government clamping down on tax reliefs for landlords. The point is this, gone are the days of making guaranteed returns on buy to let property. For the last 20 to 30 years, irrespective of which property you bought, making decent money on buy to let property was like shooting fish in a barrel – anyone could do it  – but not now. You must take a more considered approach to your existing and future portfolio, especially in Locks Heath. The balance of capital growth and yield, especially in this low interest rate world we live in, means Locks Heath landlords need to do more homework to ensure the investment in property gives the desired returns. One place for Locks Heath landlords and homeowners to visit for such information is the Locks Heath Property Blog www.thelocksheathpropertyblog.co.uk.

There I was, out with the family at Manor Farm and Country Park last weekend, when a smart gentleman approached me. “Hello”, he said, “You are the person writes that Property Blog aren’t you? We have met before at that Business Networking event in Locks Heath a few months ago”. I did then recognise him and, whilst I won’t mention his name, he runs a small but perfectly formed well known independent retailer in the suburb … It’s amazing who you see when out walking! Anyway, I was at a loose end for five or ten minutes as the other half was sorting things with the family, so we had a chat.

He wanted to know my thoughts on the future of the Locks Heath property market, and I would now like to share with you that conversation, my Locks Heath property Blog reading friends. People are always going to need a roof over their heads and somewhere to live will never go out of fashion – it’s a necessity for every single person. The 22 to 30 year olds of the suburb have a choice as to what type of roof they have … they rent from the Council, they can rent from a private landlord or finally they can get a mortgage and buy one. In the 1970’s/80’s and 90’s, the expected thing was to save like mad for two years for the deposit (going without luxuries) whilst living at home or renting a cheap two up two down, then buy your first house. However, more recently fewer Locks Heath youngsters have been buying, choosing to rent instead – mainly from private landlords (as Councils have been selling off council housing on the Right to Buy Schemes). The numbers are truly staggering … and I want to share them with you.

Roll the clock back 20 years and Locks Heath was a different place. There were 33,894 households in Fareham and 27,895 of those were owner occupied. Move to the present, and with all the building in the suburb, the total number of households has increased by 19.6% to 40,548 and quite surprising (to me at least), the number of owner-occupiers has increased to 32,391 (although as a proportion, it is only 79.8% compared to 82.3% twenty years ago).

However, it’s the rented sector that is truly fascinating … twenty years ago, only 1986 properties were privately rented in Fareham … and now its 4113, a rise of 2127.

The twenty-somethings of Locks Heath housing difficulties haven’t been helped by the local authority selling off council housing, with the number of council houses dropping from 2,740 to 2,124 over the same twenty-year period. Demand for decent rented property remains high, as Cameron’s much vaunted house building program is years away and has decades of under investment to catch up on before it starts to affect demand. Even with the Buy to Let tax rule changes over the coming few years (which will see the maximum tax relief available to landlords drop from 45% to 20%), private landlords still have an important role to play in housing the people of Locks Heath and those who educate themselves and treat it as a business will survive and prosper.

The best way Locks Heath landlords can protect their income from property (and mitigate the affects of the tax rises) is to keep the homes they let out in Grade A condition. I have found, especially over the last three or four years, Locks Heath tenants have ever growing demands from their rental property, but many are prepared to pay ‘top dollar‘ for houses and apartments that meet their high expectations. You must not forget, letting property in Locks Heath (in fact anywhere) is a business, so all private landlords should also seek the advice, opinion and commentary of property professionals.

… And just as the other half had sorted the family, he asked “What of the news of Stamp Duty changes for Landlords coming in April?” My thoughts are with such low supply (i.e. numbers of property for sale), and high demand it is hard to imagine Locks Heath property values will see much impact – but I predict, ever so slightly, the proportion of owner occupiers should increase slightly compared to buy to let landlords in the coming decade as the the housing market should return to balance. For more in-depth thoughts on the Locks Heath Property Market, which have a library of similar articles like this, all on the Locks Heath Property Market, please visit my blog – www.thelocksheathpropertyblog.co.uk